'...without massive amounts of force.'
"The modest rapprochement between India and China gives New Delhi a bit of insulation in the current crisis; with tensions eased with Beijing, the chances of China taking drastic steps against India in support of its partner Pakistan have been reduced," explains leading South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman.
Dr Kugelman is a specialist on India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and their relations with the United States.
"Still, at the end of the day, China is Pakistan's ally, and in a worst-case scenario involving a hot war, Beijing would side with Islamabad," Dr Kugelman tells Rediff's Archana Masih in the concluding part of the interview.
- Part 1 of the Interview: 'Delaying Military Action Would Keep Pakistan Anxious'
What is your assessment of the Trump administration's stance on the escalating tensions considering it has security links with both countries and needs India's help in countering China?
There was likely fear in Islamabad and hope in New Delhi that the Trump administration, because of its tough stand on Islamist terrorism, would strongly side with India and not try to discourage it from retaliating against Pakistan.
That the US has so far taken a more middle ground position speaks to the equities in its relationship with Pakistan, and to its desire to help prevent a war.
What we've essentially seen are expressions of support to New Delhi and pledges to help it in efforts against counterterrorism, but also calls for de-escalation.
These calls have come much earlier in this crisis than they did during the Pulwama/Balakot one.
What this all translates to is this: The US will likely share intel with India to help track down the Pahalgam attackers, and stand with India bilaterally and in global forums to support its efforts to curb cross-border terrorism.
It will also want to maintain its limited security ties with Pakistan, especially so that Pakistan can help it track down terrorists in Pakistan that have threatened or targeted Americans.
And we can also conclude that the Trump administration is keen to help end conflicts and not see another one break out, especially one involving nuclear-armed parties.
What should India be cautious on the China front in view of China and Pakistan's 'all weather' relationship?
The modest rapprochement recently pursued by India and China gives New Delhi a bit of insulation in the current crisis; with tensions eased with Beijing, the chances of China taking drastic steps against India in support of its partner Pakistan have been reduced.
Still, at the end of the day, China is Pakistan's ally, and in a worst-case scenario involving a hot war, Beijing would side with Islamabad.
China has made its position known, and it's actually a middle ground one similar to Washington's. Soon after the attack, China's ambassador in India took to X to condemn it. But Beijing has also called for de-escalation.
China, arguably more than any other external player, can't afford an India-Pakistan conflict. Beijing has critical investment assets in Pakistan that it's keen to protect. And it's keen to capitalise on its better relations with India to invest more in the Indian economy.
A war would work against all of this.
What impact will a protracted India-Pakistan conflagration have in the region? Also, how much further can India-Pakistan relations deteriorate from here?
India-Pakistan relations are in a bad place, but they haven't hit rock bottom. That would happen if all communication ceases; for now, military leaders are still using their hotline.
It's easy to forget, given how bad things are now, that India-Pakistan ties were actually relatively calm the last few years, since the LoC truce was inked in 2021.
That period of stability suggests the relationship may be able to bounce back relatively easily, if the two sides are ready to look for off ramps.
But in reality the dark mood in each capital suggests there is little space for dialogue at this moment.
A long period of conflict is unlikely to have direct physical impacts around the region, such as spillover effects, because any India-Pakistan conflict would be a limited one, without massive amounts of force.
But there would be a few notable impacts. One involves public opinion. If India were to use significant amounts of military force in Pakistan (which is unlikely, given the nuclear deterrent), this could fire up anti-India sentiment among publics in Muslim-majority States in South Asia.
Also, we could see interruptions in cross-regional projects, such as Indian efforts to work with BIMSTEC countries on connectivity projects.
More broadly, while there isn't much intra-regional trade, commercial relations with India and Pakistan could be interrupted. And if there are conflict-triggered economic impacts on India, this could reduce its development and humanitarian support to countries in the region.
Given that most South Asian economies are quite fragile, this wouldn't be a good thing for them.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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