Operation Sindoor: 'Escalation Can't Be Ruled Out'

'It could take the form of sporadic LoC violation through heavy artillery and mortar fire, focusing on border villages where the Hindu Dogra population is predominant.'

IMAGE: Pakistan army chief General Syed Asim Munir in a bunker near the Line of Control in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Photograph: ISPR

"There will definitely be a riposte and from the other side it will be of almost equal measure. So we will have to handle that," Rana Banerji notes in the concluding part of the interview.

Part 1: Pahalgam Attack: 'Munir Would Have Known'
Part 2: 'China Could Create Problems'

What is the end game in your assessment?

It's very difficult to predict at this juncture. There had to be some sort of action from the Indian side in military terms on the ground to appease the tremendous sense of hurt and grievance of this gruesome and horrific incident in Pahalgam. Domestic public opinion in India could not be assuaged very easily without military action.

There will definitely be a riposte and from the other side it will be of almost equal measure. So we will have to handle that.

And then thereafter there will be the next step. How escalation can be contained, both sides will claim to be victorious and have done better than the other.

IMAGE: Asim Munir and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif with a man who was injured after a suicide blast in a mosque at a hospital in Peshawar, January 30, 2023. Photograph: Prime Minister's Office/Handout via Reuters

So, the civilian political establishment in Pakistan is just a bit player in this whole game.

Shehbaz Sharif is very docile in his relationship with the army. He has no ambitions of wresting real power for long. He has wanted to become prime minister, he has lived under the shadow of his elder brother (Nawaz Sharif) as chief minister in Punjab. Now he has got his chance and it is all due to Asim Munir.

So he will not do anything to annoy Asim Munir. And he's otherwise a workhorse. He likes to work hard and deal with other pressing issues.

So his concern is not to enjoy absolute power. He is happy doing what he's doing as a prime minister with economic initiatives, with other social, civilian things. He has a lot on his plate.

He's considered to be a workhorse with a better attention span than his elder brother. So the army too is happy dealing with him. That here is a person who is reasonably good to work with.

And as regards corruption or money making and all that, the Sharifs have so much money as do other politicians who have been in power in Pakistan. So it's not much of an issue that way.

The Sharifs are said to have business relationships with Indian businessmen.

Nawaz Sharif has always found it sort of reasonable to offer a friendly hand to industrialists or businessmen from India. He has sort of a vision of a de-escalated relationship, of normal, neighbourly relations to benefit the economic aspirations of both countries.

But he reckons without the mindset of the army which wants to continue holding up India as the main enemy to maintain its own position of supremacy in Pakistani society.

So that is where the clash arose with Nawaz Sharif. And that is why the military leadership was uncomfortable with the Sharifs as long as they were being led by Nawaz Sharif.

But this time, the Sharifs made a pragmatic assessment that because they had lost popularity in Punjab in terms of political electability they thought that they should take advantage of the hostility between Imran Khan and Asim Munir.

And so Nawaz Sharif supported the decision to make Asim Munir, as the senior most general, the army chief. And that has enabled them to have Mariam Nawaz as the chief minister in Punjab after the elections.

So they are happy with this situation, they don't want to rock the boat. And as long as Asim Munir is the leader they are able to enjoy the modicum of political advantage in Punjab.

IMAGE: Asim Munir, left, and Shehbaz Sharif review the passing out ceremony of the 151st long course at the Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul, Abbottabad, April 26, 2025. Photograph: Press Information Department/Handout via Reuters

Sir, the present ISI chief is now in the unique position of being Pakistan's national security adviser as well. What is the meaning of this?

Asim Malik has been a blue eyed boy. He is the son of retired General Gulam Mohammed Malik who was also a very ambitious man. He was the corps commander of Rawalpindi for a long time under Zia and then he became military secretary before he retired or it was the other way around. So he had a very good career.

Asim Malik when he joined the army he was the sword of honour in his batch (at the Pakistan military academy, Kakul).

Then very early on he was sent to Fort Leavenworth (to the United States Army Combined Arms Center), thereafter he also did the Royal College of Defence Studies training in the United Kingdom. So doing both UK and America training falls only to the lucky few.

Although (former army chief General Qamar Javed) Bajwa's father-in-law was disciplined by Ghulam Mohammed Malik and was not given promotion from major general to lieutenant general because he was suspected to be an Ahmadiyya, Bajwa nevertheless did not hold this against Asim Malik.

He (Bajwa) gave him (Malik) promotion when it became due because of his very good career one year before the rest of the batch could be accommodated. So he became lieutenant general in September 2021.

Now a lieutenant general can continue in the rank for four years. Asim Malik's term as lieutenant general ends in September 2025.

He hasn't done a corps command so he cannot become army chief. Earlier he was offered corps commands in Lahore and in Mangla but he refrained from going there. He said he wanted to retire from the same corps that his father did. Now he didn't get that.

Instead, Asim Munir made him ISI chief which is the second most powerful position in the Pakistan army. So that was something which showed that he has earned Asim Munir's confidence.

IMAGE: Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim Malik, who is both Pakistan's national security adviser and director-general, Inter Services Intelligence, ISI. Photograph: X

A serving general becoming NSA, this is the first time it has happened. It could mean one of two things. One, it could be the face of an army general handling matters connected to international liaison as well as the possibility of defusing the military situation through a Track Two dialogue with India. So he would handle it directly without any political interference by any Pakistani politician. That is one aspect of it.

The other aspect is he has been made NSA in additional charge with the ISI. So if four years are completed in the ISI he could then be made full time NSA and relieved of his ISI charge because he would have retired from the army.

So that is a possibility that indirectly Asim Munir is clippings his wings in case Asim Malik tries to become too ambitious or too powerful. But it's premature to read that it (Asim Malik's appointment as NSA) is in response to the escalating tension between India and Pakistan. One must not read too much into his having been made the NSA in addition to being the ISI chief.

IMAGE: A damaged building after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan occupied Kashmir, May 7, 2025. Photograph: Reuters

A few hours after Operation Sindoor, we asked Mr Banerji about India striking the terrorist infrastructure deep inside Pakistan.

Was the Indian military response on expected lines? Were you surprised that India struck deep into Pakistan territory, much deeper than it ever has since 1971?

Yes. Not surprised.

Do you think hitting Bawahalpur and Muridke was meant to sent out a message to the terrorists and their handlers that they would not be safe no matter where they were located?

Yes.

Since the ISI and the Pakistan army would have expected such an Indian response -- striking terrorist targets -- would these terror camps not have been emptied in the fortnight that it has taken India to calibrate its military response?

Likely. Most probably not currently tenanted.

At its media briefing, the ISPR kept highlighting that India had stuck mosques -- was it to spin a narrative to the Muslim world that Islam was the target and not terrorism?

Well, this narrative may not sustain, as it was well known that mosques on known campuses of these proscribed outfits were being used for safe haven of terrorists, training and other non-religious purposes.

Since India carefully targeted the terrorist infrastructure and avoied hitting military targets, is there a risk of escalation from Pakistan?

Escalation cannot be ruled out.

If Pakistan were to strike back, since we don't have a terrorist infrastructure as they do, what would they possibly strike in India without ascending the escalatory ladder and provoking a full fledged war?

More likely, it could take the form of sporadic LoC violation through heavy artillery and mortar fire, focusing on border villages where the Hindu Dogra population is predominant.